Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres: NL Division Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2025 (walk-forward): 171 games, 53.8% winners, Brier 0.2547 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Milwaukee Brewers (1 seed, 103-59) vs San Diego Padres (4 seed, 91-71), best of 5. Milwaukee Brewers 59% to win the series; expected length 4.12 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | MIL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | MIL | Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael King | 60% |
| Game 2 | MIL | Logan Henderson vs Robbie Ray | 59% |
| Game 3 | SD | Robert Gasser vs Casey Mize | 47% |
| Game 4 | SD | Dustin May vs Walker Buehler | 49% |
| Game 5 | MIL | Jacob Misiorowski vs Michael King | 60% |