Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians: AL Championship Series preview
Postseason backtest 2022–2026 (walk-forward): 186 games, 54.8% winners, Brier 0.2537 against 0.25 for a coin flip — no better than a 50/50 guess. Full postseason backtest.
Tampa Bay Rays (1 seed, 98-64) vs Cleveland Guardians (2 seed, 85-77), best of 7. Tampa Bay Rays 53% to win the series; expected length 5.81 games.
| Game | Home | Starters (rotation order) | TB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | TB | Drew Rasmussen vs Parker Messick | 56% |
| Game 2 | TB | Nick Martinez vs Gavin Williams | 49% |
| Game 3 | CLE | Freddy Peralta vs Foster Griffin | 50% |
| Game 4 | CLE | Griffin Jax vs Tanner Bibee | 49% |
| Game 5 | CLE | Drew Rasmussen vs Parker Messick | 50% |
| Game 6 | TB | Nick Martinez vs Gavin Williams | 49% |
| Game 7 | TB | Freddy Peralta vs Foster Griffin | 57% |
How long the series should go
From the game-by-game probabilities above, played in order with each game's home field:
| Ends in | TB wins | CLE wins | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 games | 6.8% | 5.7% | 12.4% |
| 5 games | 13.1% | 11.9% | 25.0% |
| 6 games | 15.6% | 15.7% | 31.3% |
| 7 games | 17.7% | 13.6% | 31.3% |
The chance this series needs all 7 games is 31.3%; a 4-0 sweep by either side is 12.4%.
Probable starters: 2026 regular season
Innings, strikeouts, strikeout rate per batter faced and runs allowed per nine innings (all runs, not just earned) for each listed starter, from MLB box scores.
| Pitcher | Team | IP | K | K% | RA/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (RHP) | TB | 180.0 | 184 | 26.5% | 2.65 |
| Parker Messick (LHP) | CLE | 193.0 | 204 | 26.2% | 2.84 |
| Nick Martinez (RHP) | TB | 183.2 | 112 | 15.2% | 3.14 |
| Gavin Williams (RHP) | CLE | 196.0 | 272 | 34.3% | 3.81 |
| Freddy Peralta (RHP) | TB | 173.2 | 159 | 21.3% | 4.77 |
| Foster Griffin (LHP) | CLE | 175.1 | 165 | 22.5% | 3.95 |
| Griffin Jax (RHP) | TB | 114.1 | 120 | 25.7% | 4.49 |
| Tanner Bibee (RHP) | CLE | 188.1 | 149 | 19.0% | 4.64 |
Tampa Bay Rays · Cleveland Guardians · Bracket
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